Mastering the 1.01: Why Marvin Harrison Jr. is your Guy
Is Marvin Harrison Jr really that good? Should you take him at the 1.01 even in Superflex Dynasty Leagues? Let’s find out.
Short Answer: Yes & Yes.
Long Answer Below
You’re lucky enough to be sitting at the 1.01 in your rookie draft Dynasty League. If this was 2-3 months ago I was feeling like Tim Robinson. I gotta figure out how to make money on this thing. It’s simply too good.
I would have told you to trade the 1.01 and capitalize on the hype surrounding MHJ. Go get a proven elite player to fill a need, add a first-round pick this year, and then get anything else you can. Do you really want to pick MHJ for what is basically a magic bag of beans in hopes he becomes the next Justin Jefferson? Here is a look at some of the trades people have been landing with MHJ or the 1.01.
If you ask me that question now, I am absolutely not making a trade. Give me my magic bag of beans so I can grow my beanstalk and reach the pot of gold at the top. Of course, if you can get insane value make the trade, but if not, pick Marvin Harrison Jr.
Let’s dive in.
Data
At 6’3” 209 he is one of the few WRs that enters the league with NFL caliber size. His YPRR (yards per route run) in college was 2.8+. Remember this statistic is one of the most consistent to determine success of a college athlete at the next level.
This graph shows YPRR vs EPA (Expected Points Added). Per snap from this year’s WR class and first round draft picks since 2019 (college totals). You might notice that he is in some good company towards the top right.
Credit to Football Insights @fball_insights
Because of his size, MHJ lined up on over 75% of his routes on the outside. This normally makes it increasingly difficult to have high YPRR numbers due to space and separation. His YPRR in the slot was +3.5. Of the last two years drafts, only 2 WR have accomplished having this high of an overall YPRR and played 75% of the snaps on the outside. MHJ and Puka Nacua.
Next, let’s talk about his interview score. MHJ scored a 93. The interview score determines how well a player’s level of understanding of the manipulation of defenders, route running, schemes, and motivation and confidence indicators. Coming in at the number 4 of the entire class, MHJ knows football.
This was on full display in college. Going back to 2014 to the present, only two other receivers averaged more YPRR against man coverage. Ja’Mar Chase and Devonta Smith. And MHJ has 3 inches on Ja’Marr and 40 Pounds on Smith as a rookie.
Prestige
His dad Marvin Harrison Sr is a Hall of Fame WR. The kid has been around the highest caliber of athletes his entire life, has been mentally preparing for the NFL his entire life, has had the best access to resources and mentors, and has just lived football. Why does this matter? Think of it this way, imagine you are learning a foreign language like Spanish. You learn it in the classroom and can talk it well. But the second you go to Spain and the entire culture speaks Spanish, you become an extremely proficient Spanish speaker out of exposure. This man has lived the culture of football and excellence his entire life.
Marvin Harrison Jr is one of the most well-rounded NFL WR prospects to be drafted in the past century. This isnt a debate this is a fact.
Opportunity
MHJ landed on the Cardinals. Of the big 3 WR in this draft, he easily lands in the best spot and it isn’t even close. He joins a terrible WR core with their top talent currently being a middling 500-yard Michael Wilson. They lost Zack Ertz, Marquise Brown, and Rondale Moore in the offseason which equates to 206 targets that need to be made up for. Those targets have to go somewhere and Trey McBride can’t take them all. With volume and opportunity, production follows. He also has a viable proven QB in Kyler Murray to throw him the ball. Kyler is a poor man’s Patrick Mahomes in fantasy, but that’s a conversation for another time. MHJ has the opportunity to be offensive rookie of the year if both him and Kyler stay healthy. If they are both healthy, he will break 1000+ passing yards. Even though 3 QBs were drafted before MHJ, only Caleb Williams has better odds to win that award due to his supporting cast.
Superflex Leagues
Caleb Williams seems like a safe pick at the 1.01. You wouldn’t be wrong. You can confidently plug a starter in knowing they will get reps, he will have one of the best supporting cast ever provided to a round 1 QB, and he is in the perfect situation to succeed. I’m here to tell you that he isn’t the pick you should take at the 1.01, even in a super flex league. Last year 68 different QBs started. Even if you’re a QB-needy team and desperate, you should be able to find something available on the waiver wire to be competitive. In a dynasty league, the heart and soul of any great dynasty team lives and dies by the WR core.
