The Only Dynasty Draft Guide You Will Ever Need
I'm going to outline the fundamental necessities for being successful in a dynasty league. This will cover draft strategy and overall management of your players. Although dynasty football involves a multitude of aspects, focusing on these key elements will lay a solid foundation for your journey.
#1 Know Your League
This might seem straightforward, yet I assure you, most individuals overlook these considerations before drafting or building their team.
Understand Your League’s Life Span
League Randos
The majority of online dynasty leagues where random people join together have a shelf-life of 2-3 years. If you are creating a league with randos, you might never get to see your players or your team develop into the superteam you wanted. Draft with a win-now mentality. If you are starting a new dynasty league, go in with the understanding that this might not last very long.
League Randos 2.0
You join a league with a GM who has continued the league for many years. I was lucky enough to join a dynasty just like this. An amazing GM can make or break a league with random players. If you can't find buddies who want to play in a dynasty league, look for ones who have been well-established and have a GM who is solid. Draft for the future but consider veterans.
Friends or Family
If you are joining a dynasty league with friends, the longevity is on average significantly longer. The majority of my 10+ year leagues are friends and family leagues with a core group of people. Draft for the future.
Know Your League’s Settings
PPR, Standard, .5 PPR, TE+, Superflex, and on and on. This isn’t going to take long for me to go over. It is fairly common sense. But, make sure you are prepared for your league’s draft. Do not enter the draft with outdated or different league settings rankings. Your league is unique, and your ranking need to be unique to that league.
#2 Draft Strategy Options
Surprise! There is only one option.
Draft for Value
Draft the best available player. However, you need to do this around your personal goals. Regardless of the type of league you are joining above, I believe there is only one strategy to follow. Draft for value. All the other strategies (Hero RB, Zero-RB, etc.) require that everything goes right for it to work out. While you might be able to duplicate these strategies in a draft simulator, human randomness cannot be taken into account. If you go in with the open mind of taking the best available player and drafting for value, you will set yourself up for success. This will also give you trade pieces for those super needy teams that didn’t take the value but stuck with a special draft strategy.
Think of the story of Goldilocks and the porridge. One strategy is hot (all in), one strategy is warm (combo wombo), and one is cold (future).
League Randos Draft
The porridge is hot! Your goal should be to win now. It is as simple as that. Plan to build a team for 2-3 years. If the league makes it longer than that, fantastic. You can get the opportunity and joy of rebuilding, which is always fun. If the league doesn’t make it (very likely) you have fielded the best team, and hopefully won at least one championship in that time. You can feel good about what you put in, and not feel cheated by losing your team. If you draft with a win-now mentality, you will still be able to snag elite rookies early, but will be able to snag those veteran workhorses for dirt cheap. I would recommend having your dynasty rankings available but also have re-draft league rankings. This can help you snag those veterans who lose significant value in dynasty but will be solid producers for a couple of years.
League Randos 2.0 Draft
The porridge is warm! With this draft, you have significantly more flexibility. You are feeling good about the future of the league but aren’t 100% certain if it will be around for years to come. Draft for the future, but don't pass on veteran players with value that falls to you. If you are inheriting a team, use your picks as leverage to get solid starters. We will discuss this later, but use your picks to build the team you want with proven players. This is the fastest and safest way to start competing and building for the future.
Friends or Family Draft
The porridge is cold! You are drafting for the future, and I encourage you to have as much fun with this as possible. Personally, I am looking to build an elite fantasy team of the future. I am taking young rookies with huge upside. I am in a win-later mentality, and would rather take a potential breakout over a seasoned veteran on the way out. Draft the the future!
#3 Use Rookie Picks as Leverage
People give up consistent fantasy players, for the chance at drafting a consistent fantasy player. It is wild. Use your draft picks to get an already successful player if you can.
Trade Your Picks
Your best friends in dynasty leagues are your rookie picks. These things are like gold to so many people. The issue is that picks normally do not have a great return on value. Look at the chart below. The data shows the evolution of dynasty ADP for Round 1 selections in a rookie draft, from their rookie to sophomore years. This chart shows all first-round picks from 2014 through 2022.
Credit to Draft SharkU
In the top left corner of the chart, you'll notice the most significant drop in ADP from the 1.01 position, indicated by a decrease of 15 spots (-15). As you move down the chart towards the bottom left corner, you'll observe an increase in ADP, marked by a rise of 18 spots. The further you progress down the picks, the more dramatic the swings in ADP become.
As to not dive into too much, in short, based on this data from 2014-2022, picks 1.01-1.03 are a much safer bet. But picks beyond that, on average, depreciate from year 1 to year 2. Once you venture outside the top 3 picks, it becomes a much larger guessing game. Personally, I would much rather have a proven player with 5 years remaining, over a rookie lottery ticket. The data also supports making these types of trades. And I love data. When you look at the second round of draft picks of this data, it is about twice as bad.
Next, be mindful of trading picks for other picks, or trading back, or trading players for picks too consistently. I am not saying to be trade adverse when collecting picks, but you are supposed to be building a fantasy team. If you continue to give players up for picks, or trading back for value, you will always be in re-build mode. I love trading. I love it too much. But do yourself a favor and don’t be in continuous rebuild mode.
#4 Position Player Arch
Understand the History Behind Players
Quarterback
You need an elite QB to build your team around. LAst year there were 68 different starting QBs. While you could find a way to plug and play, I discourage it for the long term. Find a solid QB you can play week in and week out. Just like a real NFL team, this player is going to be the rock of your team. This puts you in a solid position for many years to come. This will allow you to build and focus on the other positions.
Running Back
Running backs hold significantly more value in their early years. Their most value is usually during their rookie contract years 1-4. This is typically when they are just right. As we have seen over the years, the NFL continues to devalue the RB position. We are seeing more and more RBs drafted in the 2nd through 6th rounds become RB1/2 on their teams. While draft capital absolutely plays a part, once you get outside of the first round, teams make changes in the blink of an eye at the RB position. You can expect your rookie running back values to peak around year 2 and year 3. This is usually a great time to sell high. Even if the player continues to break out, you would have hopefully gotten something great in return.
Wide Reciever
Wide receivers take time to develop. You need to be patient and wait for them to grow and receive their opportunities. My favorite time to trade for a rookie WR is after their first year. They usually have dropped in value from the draft, but get opportunities to break out the following year. The NFL uses year one WR production to determine year two value. However, most rookie wideouts or players do not see significant time until late into the season. This means their production looks terrible for the year, but is a good test to determine if they have what it takes to become a full time starter. The true heart of an elite dynasty team is its WR core. Do not give up on your WRs too early.
Tight End
Historically drafting TE's early has never been a good strategy. This includes rookie drafts or new dynasty leagues. With that said, rookie and year two tight ends have been making a comeback over the past year. Historically, outside the big TE names there has been a rotation of top 10 TEs over the years. Let’s look at the past 4 years. 2019: Austin Hooper #3 TE, 2020: C.J. Uzomah TE#4, 2021: Dalton Shultz #5, Zach Ertz #6, 2023 Evan Engram #4. TE's have up and down years consistently. Players break out and then drop out of the top 10. Unless you are investing in a generational talent on a team that utilizes the TE, it's usually best to not take this position high.
To contradic myself a bit, I drafted Sam LaPorta last year after trading away my 1st. If the opportunity presents itself with playing time and talent, you have to take a shot at the value. On the other end of the spectrum, I also added Jake Ferguson from waivers during the offseason who produced great for me in year one. TE production consistently varies and usually, you can find someone available to plug in.
#5 Your Players are Currency
Player Investments
Consider your players as stocks in a fluctuating market. Their values rise and fall over time. The goal is to buy when the value is low and sell when it's high. For instance, you might have a rookie running back you envision leading your team to victory for the next five years. However, considering the short shelf life of running backs, this may not be the wisest strategy. It's crucial to continually assess a player's value. Is there potential for their value to increase further? Then, it's about making informed decisions based on your team's objectives. Are you aiming to compete for a championship, or are you in the process of rebuilding? If it's the latter, it might be time to part ways with a high-value player who only had one year of elite production.
Credit to Mizell.net - Top 25 Rookies by ADP for their draft year compared to their 2023 ADP (June drafts)
Value Over Time
Historically, value over time differs based on the position. The two positions I am going to focus on are running back and wide receiver. These two positions stick to the most consistent historical trend over time.
Running backs typically drop slighly in value after the end of year two. They under or semi-produce in year one, they explode in year two, and then there is a drop off in value in years three forward. NFL draft stock is usually crucial for this position. With the exception of a round 1 pick, RBs can be easily replaced by day 2-3 players in next year’s draft. It is the nature of the game now in the NFL. Next man up. Consider selling the year 2-3 RB who explodes and has low NFL draft capital. This isn’t an every-case situation, but something to really consider.
Wide Receivers, take time to develop in fantasy. In the NFL, they assess a rookie WR s1st year production as crucial for their potential moving forward. WRs could take 2-4 years to hit their stride and are worth the wait. I encourage you to not give up on rookie WRs who do not produce right away. Look at Drake London. While I am personally low on him, this guy has done very little and is still looked at as an elite young WR option to have.
#6 Importance of Age
Player Production Cliff
People love to talk about age when it comes to dynasty football. Each player is unique, but historically there is a significant fall-off in production by age. The graph above tells you what you need to know when making decisions on drafting, trades, and the longevity of player production. If you are in win-now mode, you might be willing to risk it on an older player. If you are in re-build mode, you might consider selling veterans to get rookie upside later. This decision is ultimately yours, but use the data to make an informed decision.
If you made it this far, thank you! I hope you learned a lot and can now master your dynasty league.
