The Rookie Threshold: Predicting Future Success for First-Year Wide Receivers
Today we are not going to discuss which WR had the best stats in college, the NFL Combine results, or physical attributes to support who you should draft. We are going to look at the rookie wide receivers who have the best opportunity to become fantasy assets in the future. While we aren’t throwing out their entire college career, opportunity is the name of the game in this segment. And opportunity typically leads to production.
The guys over at The Fantasy Classroom did a beautiful job taking a deep dive into the 525-yard rule (*575 because of the 18-game season) that was suggested on Reddit almost a decade ago. If you don’t know what I am talking about, then you need to stop what you’re doing (even though it pains me to take you away from the page) to check it out. You can do that here.
They took 775 WR samples from 1999-2023 to come up with their results. In short, these guys cracked the code using data to assess rookie receivers being productive in their future careers in the NFL. As you take a deep dive into their data, there are outliers in every situation, but the evidence is pretty overwhelming. It allows you to make informed decisions on your fantasy team and feel confident while doing it. And honestly, that’s all you can ask for in fantasy football. I believe they aren’t getting talked about enough, so please check it out. They calculated that there were multiple significant thresholds to help determine a WR future production in fantasy. The thresholds I am going to reference for rookie receivers in their first year are the ones below:
| Rec Yards | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | WR4 | Total |
| 300 - 399 | 12% | 4% | 13% | 6% | 35% |
| 575 + | 21% | 25% | 13% | 24% | 83% |
| 700 - 799 | 22% | 22% | 7% | 41% | 92% |
| 800 - 899 | 18% | 29% | 47% | 0% | 94% |
| 1000+ | 59% | 35% | 0% | 0% | 94% |
WR1 = Top 12 WR PPR Fantasy Finish
WR2 = 13-24 WR PPR Fantasy Finish
WR3 = 25 - 36 WR PPR Fantasy Finish
WR4 = 37-48 WR PPR Fantasy Finish
Because these are the thresholds, we are going to focus on receivers that have the potential to break the higher of the thresholds almost solely based on opportunity or targets. The 1000+ threshold seems to be the golden ticket to consistent WR 1 & WR2 finishes.
Last year, we had 7 rookie wide receivers (Nacua, Rice, Addison, Flowers, Reed, Downs, & Dell) pass the 700-yard threshold. We only had 4 WR break the 800+ elite receiving yard threshold (Nacua, Rice, Addison, & Flowers). Puka Nacua is the only one to break the golden ticket WR threshold of a 1000+ yard rookie season.
Since targets are opportunities, let’s see who had the most opportunities as a rookie receiver in 2023. Nacua (160), Addison (108), Flowers (108), Rice (102), Downs (98), & Reed (94). These are the top 6 rookie receiver targets in order of highest to lowest. If you notice, this correlates almost perfectly with their receiving yard ranking. The one exception is Tank Dell who saw 75 targets, which was 10th overall. This tells me that we might be going in the right direction, not solely focusing on talent and skill, but on targets/ opportunities.
#1 Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
The Golden Ticket?
People who are taking Caleb Williams over MHJ in superflex leagues will regret it. MHJ is slated for a 1000+ receiving yard season. This is the golden ticket for WRs giving them a 94% chance to produce at the WR1 & WR2 level in their fantasy career. The only outlier in this entire data set and why it isn’t 100% is because of Michael Clayton. Having knee surgery after his 1000+ receiving rookie campaign, then injuries in years 2 and 3 that sidelined him for the season. He just never recovered.
Opportunity
MHJ is the clear-cut WR1. No questions asked. The Cardinals used pick #4 in the draft and plan to build their franchise around Kyler and MHJ. Drew Petzing is the Offensive Coordinator for the Cardinals. His team has averaged 32 pass attempts per game in previous years. While this isn’t an astonishing statistic, and only ranks them 24th in the NFL last year, they just let go Marquise Brown and Mondale Moore. These two made up 163 targets that will be missing from the team this year. Those targets have to go somewhere, and Trey McBride can’t take all of them. MHJ has a healthy Kyler Murry to start the season, who averages 3,700 passing yards and 20+ TDs a year. On top of this, Vegas has MHJ as #2 only behind Caleb Williams for Rookie of the Year. Even if we pretend to ignore his massive 2.8+ YPRR (Yard Per Route Run), X receiver dominance in college, elite physical stature entering the league, and his top 4 interview score, he is the clear-cut #1 on this list and it isn’t even close.
Prediction: 1000+ Yard Season & The Golden Ticket
Bonus
Michael Wilson missed the 575-yard threshold as a rookie by 10 yards. With all those targets available this year, he’s worth a chance if you can get a deal on him. For me, his stock is rising and this might be the cheapest you can get him for a shot as a consistent WR4+ producer in the future. He could be decent depth.
#2 Malik Nabers (NYG)
The future Odell Beckham Jr.?
Let’s be honest, Malik joins a terrible 2023 Giants team with a quarterback who seems to be on an expiring shelf-life. The Giants took a huge step back in 2023, going 29th in yards and 30th in points scored after a good 2022 campaign. The situation isn’t nearly as great as MHJ, but all isn’t bleak in New York.
Opportunity
Malik is a clear-cut WR1. Just like the Cardinals, the Giants used significant draft capital to secure their wide receiver of the future. They selected him at pick six. He enters a Giants locker room that has seen a resurgence since last season. During the offseason, they signed five new offensive linemen and three impactful starters. With these additions, the core of the Giants’ offensive line now ranks in the middle of the pack. While this might not seem exciting, it’s a significant improvement from last year when they were ranked 31st at the start of the season and finished 32nd. With a healthy Daniel Jones and third-year OC Mike Kafka, they should have the chance to return to the middling offense of 2022 that provided players with some air opportunities. They also signed a competent running back in Devin Singletary but no longer have Saquon as a safety blanket this year. Their best player is Malik, and they are going to scheme to get him the ball. Kafka and Head Coach Brian Daboll are on the hot seat this year and need to do what they can to compete. Malik is one of the answers to do that.
Now, let’s assume that the Giants regress to their old selves and have another campaign like 2023. Even if that happens, Malik should at the very least break the 700+ yard mark. Darius Slayton had two back-to-back 700+ yard seasons as WR1. Again, this is ignoring all of Malik’s college stats and the reasons he was the #2 WR off the board.
Prediction: 800+ Yard Season & 1000+ Golden Ticket Season if the Giants Don’t Fall Apart
Bonus
Rookie Jalin Hyatt broke the 300-yard threshold and did show some flashes. While he isn’t dead, it’s not looking great for him. If you can get some picks to try again this year, he might be worth a sell for someone who is high on him.
#3 Keon Coleman (BUF)
Who else is Josh Allen supposed to throw to?
I am personally very low on Keon’s talent due to his grossly low YPRR, college open/ contest catch rate, and PFF grade. I am going to put those feelings aside, which is why he is coming in as the number 3 wide receiver on the list. He arguably has a better opportunity than Malik but we do not know where Keon is going to fall on the depth chart just yet. If he gets locked in as WR1 week 1, you can go ahead and move him to #2.
Opportunity
Josh Allen over the past four seasons has consistently thrown for over 4000+ passing yards and 30 touchdown passes. The man slings the rock. The Bills averaged the 4th most yards a game and displayed the 7th most passing yards on the year. They are a high-octane offense that’s accustomed to putting up massive yards, scoring, and winning games. The Bills also lost their WR1 Stefon Diggs and WR2 Gabe Davis during the offseason. Those two made up for over 1,900 receiving yards and an insane 240 targets! Dalton Kincade will see more targets, but not 240 worth. If Keon becomes viable WR1 or WR2 coming out of mini-camp, he should see at least 100 targets. And as we saw with the rookies from last year, anyone who saw that many targets, easily eclipsed the 700 receiving yards mark, and landed in the 800+ receiving yards elite level status. Outside of MHJ, Keon comes in with the best opportunity, based on where he lands on the depth chart.
Prediction: 800+ Yard Season
Bonus
Khalil Shakir broke the 575+ receiving yard threshold as a rookie earning 611 yards on only 45 targets. You might be able to get him for cheap or free on your waiver wire. For the same reason I explained about Keon, he could be a sneaky good add for a year 2 breakout.
#4 Ladd Mcconkey (LAC)
The new YAC king in Los Angeles?
Ladd is entering a depleted WR room in Los Angeles. There are rumors floating around that Treylon Burke is looking for a trade now that the Titans acquired D-Hop, Calvin Ridley, & Tyler Boyd. The Chargers are a potential landing spot. While this could impact Ladd, I see this having a greater impact on Joshua Palmer and Quinten Johnson. Based on the Chargers’ investment in OL Joe Alt at the 1.04 and the history of Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman (Ravens 2019-2022), they plan to win between the tackles by running the ball. Even with that shift in the offensive scheme, there is the opportunity for Ladd to get involved in the slot.
Opportunity
Unlike the other three WRs mentioned Ladd is built for the slot. While this will afford him extra opportunities with screens and YAC, it will also take away some opportunities based on offensive sets. This is the sole reason he falls here. The Chargers lost Kennan Allen and Gerald Everate. Those two accounted for a silly 220 targets. Quinten Johnson was upsettingly underwhelming only putting up 440 yards as a rookie. I don’t think the Chargers are ready to give up on their round 1 pick from 2023. Even though he had a down year last year, the Chargers have a solid QB Justin Herbert who averages 4000+ passing yards a season. His most pass attempts (130) and completions (88) came from under 10 yards. Ladd is primed and ready for a solid rookie campaign.
Prediction: 700+ yards
Bonus
As mentioned, Quinten Johnson only had 440 receiving yards. This is alarmingly low for a 1st round pick. Being below the 500-yard threshold makes his chances of being a fantasy-relevant WR4 or better for future years around 30% based on the data. Not good.
#5 Roman Wilson (PIT)
Steeler Nation, let’s ride?
Roman is in the race for the WR2 position on the Steelers. Mike Tomlin went out and got the QB he wanted in Russel Wilson for a nickel and pack of bubblegum, all while the Broncos paid Russ 1000000x that amount to no longer play for them. Mike Tomlin is creative in that he wins football games, regardless of who he has on his team. With Russ as a solid and proven QB, Tomlin is going to feel more comfortable getting creative in the passing game.
Opportunity
George Pickens is the locked-in WR1, but the Steelers are still looking for their WR2. If Roman can prove himself in mini-camp, he will have the chance for a great rookie campaign. While the Steelers aren’t typically a high-volume passing team, Mike Tomlin also hasn’t had a veteran QB since 2021 in Big Ben. At that time, their offensive scheme fit better with the current Bills scheme by throwing for 3,500 to 4500 yards a season. Mike Tomlin plays to his player’s strengths, which is why he has been such a successful coach. Russ can still cook regardless if you want to believe it or not. Just look up his QB stats from last year. For me, this was evident through his 26 TDs and 8 INTs. He keeps the ball safe when he throws and executes his passes. With this new veteran presence, Tomlin might open up the passing playbook a bit more this year. At the very least, Russ is good for 3000+ yards and 25+ TDs. Even if the playbook stays the same, Dionte Johnson was traded to the Panthers. This means that 700 yards and 87 targets are up for grabs. If Roman comes in as WR2, I expect results to follow. Roman is also going deep in dynasty drafts. Based on when you draft, this could be one of the steals of the draft.
My only negative is that Arthur Smith is the Steeler’s OC. That dude is a nightmare for rookies. He likes to try and give the WR on the practice team the target in the game while forcing the 1st round pick to block for him. I think Mike Tomlin will stop that nonsense, but it’s still worrisome.
Prediction: 600+ yards
Bonus
If we look back a year, George Pickens was one of the receivers who fit the mold we have been discussing. He was a WR2 as a rookie, was afforded opportunities in 84 targets, and put up 800+ yards. He then breaks out for a 1,100-yard season and is sitting at WR1 territory the following year with a bright future. If you can get some of the 800+ yard rookies from this past year, do it. The data tells us, it is worth draft picks or some of those WRs that underperformed. While no one likes selling low, packaging with a pick for a much better chance at a viable receiving moving forward seems like a solid deal.
Honorable Mentions
I’m sure there were some elite players that you thought were missing from the list. Because this post was focused on opportunity, which is usually based on the depth of the position, these were the honorable mentions that might fit if the right things happen for them.
#7: Xavier Worthy (KC): If Rashee Rice gets suspended to start the season, the 700+ receiving-yard mark or more is realistic. Worthy is in one of the most pass-heavy and potent offenses in the league. Andy Reid has also been looking for someone to fill Tyreek’s shoes since he left. Either way, he is going to get involved, but if Rice is out, his upside gets much better.
#8: Rome Oduze (CHI): If Keenan Allen gets injured, the 700+ receiving-yard mark or more is happening for Rome. Keenan will demand a lot of looks and targets as we saw in Los Angeles. If he goes down, Rome becomes WR2 and displays a much different skillset than DJ Moore. Keenan is 32 years old and usually averages 11.5 healthy games a year. I never want to bet on a player being injured, but it isn’t out of the question.
#9: NE WRs: Javon Baker and Ja’Lynn Polk are jockeying for potentially the WR1 and WR2 spots. There is a lot that can still happen in NE at the position. The QB1 still hasn’t been decided on either, even though Drake Maye was drafted as high as he was. There is still a lot to figure out, so it’s hard to determine what kind of opportunities either of the two will see.
